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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, although analysts suggest PVV is unlikely of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and formed a multi-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June amid disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a campaign focused on issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with some experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of government. But, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations may require months, political observers indicate that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a broad-based coalition led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated soon after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.