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Two days remaining.

England's opening match in Australia starts on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to make runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent challenge of batting successfully, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, particularly against fast bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A common belief from English cricket describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing bowling in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

In addition to Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have stepped up.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have won by a combined 694 runs, including a victory against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, outcomes have not been affected – England should take heed.

Tough at the top

Remember when England could not find an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners faster than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a reason in Zak Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for four, has also been identified as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 matches.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has brought him back, most likely back at three.

In seven Tests in the current year, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has less space to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

England have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the tour are the same, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test stages an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the location for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new venue has been won by the team setting a target.

England often overthink day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

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