How Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Struggles With Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an impending US-Russia leadership summit have been overstated, apparently.
Only a few days after President Trump announced he planned to meet Russian President Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump informed the press at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
- Trump states he did not want a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves Washington without results
The on-again, off-again summit is another development in Trump's efforts to mediate an end to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the US president after he arranged a truce and hostage release deal in Gaza.
While making remarks in Egypt recently to commemorate that truce deal, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he said.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for almost four years.
Less Leverage
According to Witkoff, the key to achieving a agreement was the Israeli government's move to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided Trump bargaining power to pressure Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump gained from a long record of supporting the Israeli state since his initial presidency, including his decision to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The US president, actually, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Combine the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has much less influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has warned to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that doing so could harm the global economy and further escalate the conflict.
At the same time, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing arms shipments to the nation - only to then retreat in the face of concerned European allies who caution a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the whole area.
The president often boasts about his skill to meet and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to move the hostilities any nearer a resolution.
Putin may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of manipulating him.
During the summer, Putin consented to a summit in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that the president would sign off on legislative penalties backed by GOP senators. That legislation was afterwards delayed.
Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader called Trump who then promoted the potential meeting in Hungary.
The next day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a reportedly tense meeting.
Trump maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"You know, I have been manipulated all my life by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he remarked.
But the president of Ukraine later commented on the sequence of events.
"Once the issue of long-range mobility became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he stated.
So, in a short period, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to Ukraine to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately urging Zelensky to surrender the entire Donbas region – even territory Russia has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately settled on calling for a ceasefire along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has refused to accept.
During his election campaign previously, Trump vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently discarded that pledge, saying that concluding the hostilities is proving harder than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his power – and the challenge of finding a framework for peace when neither side desires, or can afford to, cease hostilities.